Ecuador is already feeling the first signals of a developing El Niño. The eastern Pacific Ocean, especially the Niño 1+2 region near Ecuador and northern Peru, has warmed strongly in recent weeks. Warmer ocean water adds heat and humidity to the atmosphere, which can intensify coastal heat, favor heavy rainfall, and increase the risk of floods.
In the last weeks, we have already seen warning signs: heat waves, recent flooding on the Coast, unusually warm days in Quito during parts of May, and now very intense rainfall in the capital. In central Quito, my own measurements show more than 50 mm of rain over the past week — very unusual for the beginning of the normally drier season.
Does this mean every extreme event is “caused by El Niño”? Not exactly. Local storms,
mountains, humidity, urban heat, and daily atmospheric conditions also matter. But El
Niño changes the background conditions: it loads the system with extra ocean heat and
moisture, making unusual weather more likely.
For Ecuador, this is a moment to prepare, not panic. The Coast should remain alert for
floods, river overflows and landslides, while the Andes should monitor intense rainfall,
slope instability, and sudden urban flooding. El Niño is not only a coastal story — in a
warming climate, its effects can appear in complex and sometimes surprising ways
across the country.
RASA
